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Arm Chair Quarterback
Analysis, December 21, 2001
THE WINNING INGREDIENTS
It's December, and the playoff hunt is in full bloom. This is the time of the year when reputations are made. With the money, prestige, career satisfaction, and potential contract payoffs at stake, the intensity picks up considerably once a team recognizes that it is closing in on a postseason berth.
There are so many factors that contribute to the success of a football team. Coaching, talent, cohesiveness, discipline, execution and focus, experience, injuries, and of course a little luck never hurts. While I didn't start paying close attention to the league until the mid 1970's, I've still seen plenty of football, and there are certain key ingredients that most teams share who make noise at Christmastime and beyond. The following is my "recipe for a champion"....
1) Leadership. No matter what the style a team plays, it must have some personalities that spark the team and create a sense of mission and purpose that the other players can look to for encouragement and inspiration. The fans won't know who these players are until time has passed and championships have been won. This style of leadership begins in training camp, extends to the practice field, comes to the fore in the locker room, and finally bears fruit on the field. In most cases it comes in the form of one or two players on both offense and defense. The head coach is key, as he creates the atmosphere in which a certain type of leader will emerge. Ultimately, if the team is going to be successful, the field leaders must be walking in step with the head coach.
In this year's crop of contenders, look for evidence that a team has the type of leaders on both sides of the ball who are of the same mindset as their head coach, and pay attention to how they respond to pressure situations as the season winds down.
2) The Running Game. With almost no exceptions, every strong playoff team and eventual champion has the ability to run the ball effectively and control the flow of the game. Any team that cannot generate a consistent running game will wear out it's own defense by forcing them to stay on the field too long, thus losing the battle at the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter when it matters the most. Note, I don't mean teams that rely on running the ball to move the chains. I mean, can a team run the ball when it has to, and when it wants to? The Rams are not a running team, but have proven that they can run it whenever they choose to. This is key.
Football is a complicated, but predictable game. Offense is predicated upon a team's ability to control the line of scrimmage. Some teams do this by forcing a team to defend against a quick-strike, high octane attack, thus keeping the safeties out of the "box" and freeing up running room, (such as the Rams). Others just come right at you and dare you to stop them and keep on gut-punching you until you wilt (such as the Steelers now and Giants of last year). It is a truism in the NFL that you can win with a great running game and slightly above average QB, but not with an excellent QB and no running game. This principle may be violated occassionally in a specific game, but in the long run (bad pun) the good running teams win the championship. Current examples of this principle are the Rams, who didn't take off as an offense until Marshall Faulk came on board, the Packers, who's resurgence is directly attributable to an improved defensive line and the addition of Ahman Green at running back, and the Ravens, whose defense has not looked so invincible this year now that they cannot run the ball down people's throats anymore on offense and give their D a breather.
Down the stretch in December, watch the boxscores for the average gain per carry of contending teams as well as the balance of their offensive playcalling.
3) Poise. Poise can also be called character, but poise is more accurate a term, as it describes a specific condition of a player or team in the face of pressure and calamity. Someone with "poise" has a confident demeanor and remains calm and under control while less mature people are cracking and falling apart at the seams. This trait is tricky, because a team has to develop it on the fly, during the course of a season. Right now there are a few teams (not many), who have a great deal of poise, either because of past success or because they are confirming the belief they have in themselves week after week with one solid performance after another.
The pretenders get seperated from the contenders as the pressure mounts and each play takes on greater significance. Bill Parcells once stated that a team wasn't ready for a championship until it could play just as consistently in a one point game as it does in a blowout. His Giants teams of the late 80's and early 90's were a good example of that, as his teams would often be at their best when the pressure was at its height. Without a good deal of poise, a team will not make it deep into the playoffs.
4) Red Zone Defense. Much is made of statistics, but as any astute observer knows, statistics do lie. Statistics are only useful as indicators, or as benchmarks for individual achievement. However, regarding team play, different statistics mean different things to different teams. For instance, a ball-control offense will value rushing attempts and third-down conversion stats more highly than average yards per pass or other such stat. Similarly, on defense many statistics can be skewed to the untrained eye. Your favorite team may be 3rd in the NFL against the run, but 30th against the pass. How can this happen, you say? Easily. If you have cornerbacks who can't cover anybody, teams will throw on you and abandon the run more quickly.
As the playoffs draw near, what's critical on defense is not yards allowed, or ranking against the run or pass, but rather, how effective is your defense in the "red zone" or scoring area? Many teams willingly give up short yardage to avoid getting beat for the big play, but then put the clamps down as the opponent approaches the scoring area. They may be middle of the pack regarding overall defensive stats, but staunch when an opponent threatens to score. As the season winds down, playoff berths will be won and lost largely because of who is able to score touchdowns and who has to settle for field goal attempts. If you want to know who will most likely succeed in January, check which teams are most effective both offensively and defensively in the red zone, and forgot all the other meaningless stats that most people think are so important.
5) Special Performers. One often overlooked aspect that contributes to a successful season is the importance of special performances from not only a team's star players, but more importantly from various role players on the team. By role players, I mean guys who aren't considered the core of the team, or maybe aren't good enough to be starters. Every team that is enjoying success will have been getting a regular dose of "above-normal" performances from these fringe players. Not every week from the same guys, but week to week from different people, getting the team over the hump in the contents that are decided by just a few plays.
Often these specail performances are the result of the leadership on the team inspiring the others to a higher level of performance. The poise that a team has also contributes to the confidence with which certain fringe players perform. Proof of this principle is any time you see a team that is struggling, when the previous season they enjoyed great success with roughly the same group of players. Often the difference is the lack of special performances from the fringe players on the team. A great example of this would be Timmy Smith of the Redskins a little used player who set a Super Bowl record with his 212 yards rushing against the Dolphins.
6) Quarterback Efficiency. The final criteria that I feel is critical to a team's success in the playoffs is having a QB that efficiently executes the gameplan with a minimum of error. You don't need John Elway or Joe Montana to win in the playoffs, provided you have a good, balanced team on both sides of the ball. What you do need is a quarterback who makes the smart play more often than not, and who avoids the turnovers. You need to look no further than the Rams this year to realize that the only times St. Louis has lost this year is when Kurt Warner turned the ball over more than 3 times. This happened in their first meeting with the Saints, when the Saints used turnovers to come back from a 24-6 halftime deficit, and against the Buccanneers, who used to same formula to beat the Rams in a Monday Night game.
THE PLAYOFF HUNT
The NFC
The only team that should emerge from the crop is the Rams. They are so far superior to anybody else, that I believe the team plane would have to crash in a cornfield somewhere for them not to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of January. There are three teams who potentially could give them a hard time, meaning the Eagles, Packers or 49ers. I mean no disrespect to the Bears and their great season, but they don't have the offensive capability to beat the Rams, no matter how good their defense plays, especially in St. Louis. The Eagles also have a great defense, but again, not enough offensive firepower, though I have much more faith in Donovan McNabb to make plays than Jim Miller. The Packers have the x-factor in Brett Favre, but have difficulty shutting down the passing game, and have some injuries in the secondary. They also have a dreadful time scoring when Ahman Green doesn't perform well. The 49ers, their recent defeat aside, could sneak up on them. They are playing solid defensively, and certainly are capable of keeping pace on the scoreboard. That being said, I see the Rams cakewalking their way to the championship.
The AFC
This conference is wide open. The Steelers are the early consensus favorite to make the big game, especially if Kordell Stewart continues to play with poise and confidence. Defensively they are the best team in the league. Two question marks are the reliability of Kris Brown as a kicker and the health of Jerome Bettis. Both issues could derail their Super Bowl push. Directly behind the Steelers I place the Patriots, who despite their humble beginnings this year are playing the best football of anyone in the conference at the moment. Their defense is typical of Belichick teams in that they bend in the middle of field but they are real tough in the red zone. Like the Steelers, they play tough and physical on both sides of the ball.
The rebuilt offensive line is run blocking very well, but has been allowing an alarming number of sacks. The Patriots have a shot at going all the way, but it will hinge on whether the offensive line can give Tom Brady time to operate and their ability to force turnovers on defense. I dismiss Oakland at this point, who is not playing defense well enough right now to beat any but the worst teams, and that just barely. They are not the same team that charged out of the gate in September. The Dolphins can be tough, but inconsistent QB play from Jay Fiedler and the loss of Darryl Gardener may spell their doom...they can't stop the run anymore. If the Jets had the Vinnie Testaverde of two years ago, they could run the table, but I don't know what happened to him. It's unreasonable to expect him to do an about-face from his season-long funk, and without solid play from him, the Jets won't make it out of the first round. The Ravens have to be feared as defending champs, but they are a shell of the team that won the championship last year. They have no running game and Elvis Grbac is turnover-prone. Not even Ray Lewis can overcome that. I see the Steelers emerging from this pack, and providing an interesting Super Bowl matchup against the Rams.
Dave
About the Author;
Dave LeBlanc is a part-time freelance writer with a life-long NFL addiction.
He can be reached at Dave@boomerjournals.com and looks forward to your comments
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